Modeling of Withdrawals from Selected ATMs of the “Euronet” Network

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of withdrawals from Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), using daily data for selected ATMs installed by the Euronet network in the Polish provinces of Małopolska and Podkarpacie for the period from January 2008 to March 2012. The main aim of this paper is an estimation of the proper econometric models for withdrawals time series and attempt to forecast future demand on cash flow in ATMs in respect to their localization. This is necessary to establish a replenishment schedule. The results of computations suggest that models built on the basis of SARIMA methodology are useful tools for an modeling daily withdrawals time series. This kind of model can be applied independently of the localization of an ATM. The exercises for ex post data imply ex post forecast errors under 20%. This size of forecast errors is lower than the bias of actual replenishment scheduling.